Tuesday, July 6, 2010

What the H is Going On Today?

It gives me no comfort to see a widespread rally like today on no news (if anything it’s to the negative side with lower than expected ISM-services the only positive econ data point i see is strong retal sales out of switzerland hardly a major heartwarmer).

I think gold is the only thing down today. stocks up, energy up, grains up, metals up, softs up. Curiously enough the "flight to safety assets" - treasuries and yen are also up.

One possible driver is the impending IPO by China Ag Bank which is supposedly 20x oversubscribed (altho it seems to me like all these ipo oversubscription numbers are usually a pile of you know what). It looks like though majority of those buying into IPO are sovereign wealth funds – Singapore and Middle Eastern in particular – as well as state owned Chinese companies like China Life and PetroChina. I would be more comfortable if private asset managers were buying into it. The IPO is scheduled to take place in Shanghai tomorrow and will be a huge market mover tomorrow. I believe H-share listing is on the 17th.

We have seen short term rebounds following steep selloffs before.

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