Friday, August 14, 2009

Coppin' all that copper




Very well put by the DB research team:

LME metals were strong again, with copper and nickel posting fresh 2009 highs. We believe the positive tone of the US Fed has boosted investors’ confidence, while base metals were little affected by an unexpected fall in US July retail sales
and disappointing job data. We think Chinese demand has been the most important force driving metal prices this year. In fact, we find that since the beginning of the year, the correlation between the LME copper price and the Shanghai Composite Index is 89% compared to an average of 30% between 2006 and 2008. We also think China’s importing appetite is also a major factor. Our “back of the envelope” calculations reveal an extraordinary stockpile. Given our forecast China will consume 6066Kt of refined copper and will produce 4072Kt, we estimate an import requirement of 1994Kt. In the first seven months of the year, China has imported around 2100Kt, meaning the country has already covered its required tonnage. When annualized at current levels, China will import roughly 4200Kt in 2009, leaving a surplus of 2200Kt. If realized,~30% of next year’s requirement will be covered meaning China has essentially brought forward future import demand meaning imports in 2010 could be vastly reduced. During a recent field trip, our metals and mining analyst Julian Zhu found a variety of producers and smelters who have nothing to do with copper but are hoarding the metal as a result of excess liquidity in the economy. We believe that as new RMB lending decreases, such speculative activity will be reduced

Nemo had talked about this in one of his postings on Macro Man. I think copper short is a good trade but I think it would be 100% correlated to the stock market, and there is no interesting trade to be done with the curve given the boring shape. How can I play this?

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