US consumers not feeling all that upbeat according to the latest UoM survey. Is that really a surprise to anyone? Every data point says there ain't no hiring and wage is dropping a stone tied to an even bigger stone.
Is it time to go long WMT and short consumer discretionary again? Made some decent money last year on that bet.
Huge risk reversal on the news. Thank god I somehow timed the long Yen bet. But still punched hard in the face by long AUD and NOK. Short Kiwi not serving as a hedge. What in the hiell is the deal with the NZD???
3 comments:
What took the consumer so long to realise?
Really enjoy blog BTW
I think the stock market plays a huge role in amplifying the public's mood about the general economy. Hiell, when stock market is rippin' and your eTrade account is growin' maybe you feel like things aren't so bad.
But when you start hearing your neighbor who got laid off 6 months ago still can't find anything it starts to chip away at you.
IMO, wide public ownership of stocks is a net negative for the society.
I agree about stocks but with fewer and fewer company pension schemes and more and more people managing their own 401K's its not going to change.
Weekly and daily AUDUSD looks like a nice short to me. AUD weaker than NZD, no idea why except more and more people lately are trading aussie crosses as a proxy for indices, especially AUDJPY.
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