So CHF has been my biggest short position since July. The bad news is that it has been appreciating against the Dallah. The good news is that it hasn't gone up as much as the other currencies I am long against the Dallah.
Swiss producer and import prices data came out for July. Long story short prices are falling and disinflationary pressure is mounting (but that seems to be the case everywhere in the world). rate hike not anywhere in sight (but that is also the case pretty much everywhere in the world).
SNB had stated that stronger CHF would be undesirable given its fragile, trade-dependent economy, but it seems unlikely that SNB would actively intervene.
For the foreseeable future I think CHF would just remain a very low beta currency.
BTW, I am net short CHF versus EUR but in my portfolio I trade everything against USD for simplicity sake.
3 comments:
Yeah the CHF was the best way to short the USD from a technical and liquidity perspective... despite EURCHF intervetion people just keep doing it! Last week this was less of an issue because positions were scaled back, but were back to USD.CHF shorting again it seems ~enjoy!
Shoot me an email re CHF, have some colour that may be of interest. jungle dot np at gmail dot com.
Do you think that the CHF will be MUCH less popular for a bit vs the dollar now that Swiss banking secrecy is dead? I'm wondering how much flow because of this.
If I was an American with money in Swizerland I would be running, not walking, to get my money out.
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