USD - capital flows?

So I am trying to get some more insight on drivers of USD. With all this talk of rush to risk taking and dumping of USD-denominated assets I decided to look deeper into the Treasury international capital flows data. As you probably know, the US Dept of Treasury provides capital flows data on a monthly basis albeit a long delay. So long that it likely is useless as any sort of trading indicator. Still, I just wanted to see if there is a consistent relationship.

Looking at monthly flows data vs performance of DXY Index the answer seems to be no. Doing a rough stat analysis (my favorite kind), out of 114 months starting Feb 2000, only in 51 months did DXY move consistently with flows data (outflow = DXY down, inflow = DXY up).

Just looking at the data since the start of financial crisis, the relationship isn't clear. In Dec 2008 DXY dropped huge 6% despite net inflow of $70B, and the index gained about 8% in Jan and Feb 2009 despite total net outflow of about $230B. The first chart shows the relationship.

I did some further analysis including trade data, but that did not shed any additional light.

On an interesting note, below is rolling 12months net capital inflow for US. This persistent positive capital inflow is needed to offset as persistently negative trade deficit. Despite the huge inflow during the crisis period US is looking like it is having trouble attracting foreign capital. Where is it going to from here? An interesting economic question but probably not one that provides a tradable thesis.