Tuesday, August 18, 2009

It is All About Timing Now


Some very large swings last Friday, yesterday and today. This has been a difficult time to trade with correlations all going to either +1 or -1. It has been a while where I can look at price change of just 1 currency, commodity, bond future (US), or an equity index and can tell how everything else would be doing.

With the green shoots rally running out of steam and Q2 earnings (or more like heavily adjusted operating earnings with bucket loads of one time charges and cost cuts) out of the way investors are looking for direction - risk on or off?

In a way I am getting tired of reading up and studying fundamentals when none of the shiet seems to matter. I was able to find some decent relative value trades earlier on but those trades are becoming harder and harder to find.

Timing trades is really all about the ability to withstand mark-to-market losses, so it's crucial that you work for the boss who can tolerate some short term roller coaster ride. I can afford to put on longer term trades in my personal account and just added to my equity short position earlier today.

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